by Hibah Yousuf, Staff Reporter
Saturday, August 21, 2010
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(Courtesy of Moody's Economy.com) |
The chance of a national double-dip recession is hotly debated amid an increasing number of signs that the economic recovery is losing pace, but the risk is particularly troublesome on a local level.
A new report from Moody's Economy.com singled out 22 cities that are at risk of slipping back into a recession in as early as three months. To come to this conclusion, the economists considered dwindling progress in employment, housing starts, home prices and industrial production. (See the map above for the full list.)
The at-risk cities are spread across the country, though more than half of the cities are in the South, and five are concentrated in the Midwest.
"With chances of a national double-dip recession now estimated at about one in four, several metro areas will probably experience their own downturns in the first half of 2011," said economist Andrew Gledhill, author of the report.
Private sector hiring has been tapering off in recent months compared to the start of the year, triggering Moody's to boost its forecast for a national double-dip from a 20% chance to 25% chance.
What's a double dip? No one really knows.
In the 22 identified metro areas, Gledhill said private sector hiring is particularly sluggish, increasing the chances of a slowdown.
Without a substantial pick-up in hiring, Gledhill said the number of cities in danger of a double-dip recession could grow, possibly reaching the triple-digits.
"There was a time when all 384 metro areas were in a recession. We probably won't get to that point again, but given the growing risk of another national recession, we're on the lookout for more metro areas that will be weakening substantially on several levels over the next six months to a year," Gledhill said.
He added that a handful of metro areas, particularly those that are industrial economies, are also suffering from a recent falloff in manufacturing.
May 12, 2010
By Robert Freedman, senior editor, REALTOR® Magazine
With the housing recovery still fragile, it’s hard to look ahead with anything but caution. However, the long-term prospects for the market are “incredible,” FHA Commissioner David Stevens told REALTORS® yesterday in the opening forum of the 2010 NAR Midyear Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo.
Young households today represent a demographic block larger than even the baby boomers, and their entry into the housing market promises to help build “an incredible real estate market in the future,” said Stevens. But first the housing market must move from recovery to stability and then to long-term growth, and that will only happen if investors regain confidence in the mortgage market. And for that to happen, the mortgage market must be reformed to reward transparent financing structures.
Stevens credited NAR’s role in helping Congress and the administration stabilize the market through its support of a “mosaic” of pragmatic policies, such as:
• The Federal Reserve’s $1.25 trillion dollar investment in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage backed securities, which helped keep interest rates historically low.
• The home buyer tax credit, which has so far been taken by 2.2 million households for $16 billion in total returns
• The federal government’s foreclosure prevention efforts, which have helped 1.1 million households.
That mix of programs has led to today’s housing recovery but the job won’t be finished, he says, until the federal government steps out of the picture and the market stands on its own. “We constantly talk about exit strategy,” Stevens said, referring to the administration’s goal of unwinding its mortgage-market interventions.
To help protect the recovery, Stevens urged REALTORS® while they’re in Washington this week to convince lawmakers to pass FHA reform legislation under consideration in the House as soon as possible. That legislation, H.R. 5072, would enable FHA to lower the upfront mortgage insurance premium and instead fold a higher annual premium into the loan, a change that would align FHA with the approach used in the private sector. The legislation would also give FHA more tools for clamping down on bad lenders.
The changes in the mortgage insurance premium are needed to help FHA improve its financial picture and restore its reserves to its congressionally mandated level. Not having the authority it needs to change its premium structure “is costing FHA $300 million a month in money it’s not getting,” he said.
“You are the recovery,” he told the packed room of REALTORS®. “Now we’ve got to finish the job.”
Despite generally rising home prices, home equity continues to fall in many cites hardest hit by the unraveling of the real estate market.
Equity continues to drop because of resetting mortgage rates, job losses, and high rates of foreclosure depressing home prices further.
Using information from credit reporting service Equifax, Forbes magazine measured the percentage of home equity relative to a home's current value in the country's 200 largest metropolitan statistical areas.
It determined that these are the 10 areas with the lowest average percentage of home equity:
1. Modesto, Calif.
2. Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.
3. Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, Ariz.
4. Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev.
5. Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif.
6. Stockton, Calif.
7. Merced, Calif.
8. Reno-Sparks, Nev.
9. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.
10. Anchorage, Alaska
Source: Forbes, Tim Kiladze (05/06/2010)
Freddie Mac reports that the average interest for 30-year fixed mortgages was 5 percent this week, down from last week's 5.06 percent.
Meanwhile, 15-year fixed loans averaged 4.36 percent versus 4.39 percent over that same time span. Rates on five-year, adjustable-rate mortgages and on one-year ARMs also were down, averaging 3.97 percent and 4.07 percent, respectively.
Source: Modesto (Calif.) Bee (05/07/10)
Daily Real Estate News | February 24, 2010 |
The financial crisis was the result of home buyers’ rational reactions to misaligned incentives – not fraud, argues Todd Zywicki, a George Mason University law professor and a Mercatus Center senior scholar.
Zywicki, who has studied the financial meltdown, argues that taking out a risky bank loan looks like a foolish choice today, but at the height of the housing boom was actually a smart decision for many people.
He says the crisis began when the Federal Reserve pushed interest rates to extreme lows from 2001 to 2004, making adjustable rate loans very attractive. It wasn’t until the Fed pushed rates back up that people walked away from their loans.
In the next phase of the crisis, Zywicki says, the availability of foreclosed properties pushed down home prices, which led to more home owners walking away from their properties. Now in the current phase of the decline, unemployment has led to even more foreclosures.
Zywicki writes: “The problem isn't consumer gullibility or ignorance. Borrowers have shown they understand, and act on, the incentives they face all too well.”
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Todd Zywicki (02/19/2010)
Daily Real Estate News February 26, 2010
Some potential home buyers say they're holding out until the tax credits expire on the theory that prices will decline once the buying incentive is gone.
One person who commented on the dilemma on Zillow.com wrote: “I’ve seen prices in my neighborhood jump up over $30k since the credit started.”
In some markets, waiting is clearly the wrong move. A renter in Las Vegas told the Wall Street Journal that he’s been outbid eight times trying to buy a house. He doesn’t believe the expiration of the credit will make any difference.
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Emily Friedlander (02/25/2010)
Daily Real Estate News | February 25, 2010
Investors breathed a sigh of relief Wednesday when Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke told Congress that interest rates are likely to remain low for an extended period. The economy, he said, "still requires support for recovery."
Investors see these low rates as a boon to a recovery of employment and business.
Bernanke’s announcement also took the edge off the news Wednesday that housing sales hit a new low in January.
"Even though nothing he said was particularly new, it was just enough to calm the ruffled feathers that were out there," said Jim McDonald, chief investment strategist at Northern Trust in Chicago.
Source: Associated Press, Tim Paradis (02/24/2010)
Daily Real Estate News | February 11, 2010 |
Strong gains in existing-home sales were the predominant pattern in most states during the fourth quarter, with many more metro areas seeing prices rise from a year earlier, according to the latest survey by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS®.
Sales increased from the third quarter in 48 states and the District of Columbia; 32 states saw double-digit gains. Year-over-year sales were higher in 49 states and D.C.; all but three states had double-digit annual increases.
Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, jumped 13.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.03 million in the fourth quarter from 5.29 million in the third quarter, and are 27.2 percent above the 4.74 million-unit level in the fourth quarter of 2008.
Distressed property accounted for 32 percent of fourth quarter transactions, down from 37 percent a year earlier.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the first-time home buyer tax credit was the dominant factor.
“The surge in home sales was driven by buyers responding strongly to the tax credit combined with record low mortgage interest rates,” he said. “With inventory levels trending down over the past 18 months, we expect broadly balanced housing market conditions in much of the country by late spring with more areas showing higher prices.”
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate on a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 4.92 percent in the fourth quarter from 5.16 percent in the third quarter; it was 5.86 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008.
In the fourth quarter, 67 out of 151 metropolitan statistical areas reported higher median existing single-family home prices in comparison with the fourth quarter of 2008, including 16 with double-digit increases; one was unchanged and 84 metros had price declines. In the third quarter, only 30 MSAs showed annual price increases and 123 areas were down.
The national median existing single-family price was $172,900, which is 4.1 percent below the fourth quarter of 2008; the median is where half sold for more and half sold for less. “This is the smallest price decline in over two years, with the most recent monthly data showing a broad stabilization in home prices,” Yun said. “Because buyers are taking on long-term fixed rate mortgages, avoiding adjustable-rate products, and trying to stay well within their budgets, the price recovery process appears durable."
NAR President Vicki Cox Golder said near-term market conditions will remain favorable.
“Mortgage interest rates are expected to trend up later this year, but right now we have very good conditions with steadying home prices and favorable inventory in most areas, especially in the higher price ranges,” she said.
Golder said one of the biggest issues now is for repeat buyer who will have to accelerate their buying plans if they want the expanded tax credit. They have to have a contract by the end of April.
Repeat buyers do not have to sell their existing home, but all buyers must occupy the property they purchase as a primary residence to qualify for the tax credit. Buyers who have a contract in place by April 30, 2010, have until June 30, 2010, to finalize the transaction to get a credit of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and $6,500 for repeat buyers.
Markets by Region
Northwest: Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 11.1 percent in the fourth quarter to a pace of 1.03 million and are 33.6 percent higher than a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Northeast declined 5.6 percent to $234,900 in the fourth quarter from the same quarter in 2008, but with widely varying conditions.
“In the Northeast, markets with lower median prices that have avoided wide swings, such as Buffalo, are generally showing consistent price gains,” Yun said. “Even so, some of the higher cost areas are showing signs of stabilization, such as Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y., and Boston.”
Midwest: In the Midwest, existing-home sales jumped 14.5 percent in the fourth quarter to a pace of 1.38 million and are 29.9 percent above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest rose 1.1 percent to $141,100 in the fourth quarter from the same period in 2008, with the region accounting for the majority of metro areas experiencing double-digit gains.
Yun said markets with high unemployment rates in Ohio and Michigan experienced large price swings. “Big price gains in many Midwestern areas are due to a more normal range of home sales in contrast with predominately foreclosed sales a year ago,” he said.
South: In the South, existing-home sales rose 13.8 percent in the fourth quarter to an annual rate of 2.23 million and are 28.2 percent higher than the fourth quarter of 2008. The median existing single-family home price in the South was $153,000 in the fourth quarter, down 2.4 percent from a year earlier.
“Affordable markets in the South that have relatively better local economies are seeing healthy price gains, such as Houston, Oklahoma City and Shreveport, La.,” Yun said.
West: Existing-home sales in the West jumped 16.2 percent in the fourth quarter to an annual rate of 1.38 million and are 18.2 percent above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the West was $227,200 in the fourth quarter, which is 8.9 percent below the fourth quarter of 2008, but with many areas showing notable gains.
“Markets in the West such as San Francisco, San Jose and Denver are showing double-digit price increases, and other markets like San Diego and Anaheim have begun to firm up,” Yun said.
A Closer Look at the Condo Market
Metro area condominium and cooperative prices – covering changes in 54 metro areas – showed the national median existing-condo price was $177,300 in the fourth quarter, down 4.8 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008. Eleven metros showed increases in the median condo price from a year earlier and 43 areas had declines; in the third quarter only four metros experienced annual price gains.
Source: NAR
Daily Real Estate News | February 8, 2010 |
Selling a property in this tough market can seem like a challenge. Here are four factors that actually make this a good time to post a For-Sale sign.
- Sell low and buy low. Because all property values are down, the loss on the property a home owner sells is really only a paper loss because the next property he buys also will be a bargain. If he buys smartly, when prices come back up in a few years, he’ll be in better shape.
- Down-payment help is widely available. While nothing-down loans have disappeared, it is easy to find down-payment assistance for lower-income and first-time home buyers. Programs vary all over the country, but one good way to find them is to search online for “down-payment assistance programs” and the name of your region.
- Your uncle has money to share. Besides the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit and the $6,500 move-up credit, there are an array of energy tax credits that can make home improvements pay off in cash.
- Good help is available. Really talented real estate practitioners, contractors, and designers are available and eager for business.
Source: McClatchy Tribune, Kate Forgach (02/07/2010)
Daily Real Estate News | February 10, 2010 |
U.S. home values declined another 5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared to the previous year. This was the 12th straight quarter of year-over-year declines, reported Zillow.com.
More than 29 percent of homes sold in 2009 in the U.S. went for less than sellers originally paid for them, Zillow said, estimating that more than 20 percent of U.S. home owners owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth.
“While the next few months are likely to bring further home value declines in most markets, we do expect to see a national bottom in home prices by the middle of this year,” Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries said in a statement. “Thereafter, home values are likely to bounce along the bottom with real appreciation remaining negligible for some time.”
Source: Bloomberg, Daniel Taub (02/10/2010)
In a new study, "Housing in America: The Next Decade," Urban Land Institute senior resident fellow John McIlwain says the housing market will not return to what it was prior to the downturn but rather that a "new normal" will take its place.
He expects another 10 percent decrease in residential prices this year, a jump in the number of borrowers abandoning "underwater" mortgages, and a change in consumer perceptions of homeownership.
"The emotional impact on the children and parents and disillusion about the 'joys' of homeownership will be intense; new attitudes to homeownership and the American dream will emerge," McIlwain writes.
He expects home price appreciation to hover around 1 percent or 2 percent per year after the market recovers and the national homeownership rate to drop from 67 percent currently to 62 percent by 2020.
In the coming decade, McIlwain expects the following:
- Older baby boomers to move to urban, mixed-use, mixed-age centers near family instead of retiring to Sun Belt communities;
- Immigrants to snub the suburbs in favor of more close-knit communities;
- Younger boomers to face the challenges of lost home equity and a smaller pool of move-up buyers;
- Generation Y to rent for long periods by choice or because they are paying off student loans or have stagnant incomes.
Source: Inman News (02/01/10)
Daily Real Estate News | February 3, 2010 |
An estimated 4.5 million home owners owe 75 percent more than their homes are worth. That number is likely to peak at 5.1 million in June, affecting 10 percent of home owners and making them increasingly likely to just walk away.
''We're now at the point of maximum vulnerability,'' says Sam Khater, a senior economist with First American CoreLogic, the firm that conducted the recent research. ''People's emotional attachment to their property is melting into the air.''
Consultants at Oliver Wyman calculated that 17 percent of owners defaulting in 2008 –about 588,000– chose to default even though they could pay.
First American estimates that it would cost about $745 billion – about the same as the original 2008 bank bailout – to restore all underwater borrowers to the break-even point.
Doing so would be seen as highly unfair by many taxpayers, says Michael S. Barr, assistant Treasury secretary for financial institutions, but doing nothing would be another blow to a fragile economy.
Source: The New York Times, David Streitfeld (02/022010)
Daily Real Estate News | January 25, 2010 |
Existing-home sales fell as expected in December after first-time buyers rushed to complete deals during the months leading up to the original November deadline for the tax credit. However, prices rose from December 2008 and annual sales improved in 2009, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.
Existing-home sales—including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops—fell 16.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million units in December from 6.54 million in November, but remain 15 percent above the 4.74 million-unit level in December 2008.
There were approximately 5,156,000 existing-home sales in 2009, which was 4.9 percent higher than the 4,913,000 transactions recorded in 2008. It was the first annual sales gain since 2005.
Tax Credit Creates Swing in Market
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says there were no surprises in the data.
“It’s significant that home sales remain above year-ago levels, but the market is going through a period of swings driven by the tax credit,” he said. “We’ll likely have another surge in the spring as home buyers take advantage of the extended and expanded tax credit. By early summer the overall market should benefit from more balanced inventory, and sales are on track to rise again in 2010."
However, Yun says, the job market remains a concern and could dampen the housing recovery. "Job creation is key to a continued recovery in the second half of the year,” he says.
An NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 43 percent of homes in December, down from 51 percent in November. Repeat buyers rose to 42 percent of transactions in December from 37 percent in November; the remaining sales were to investors.
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $178,300 in December, which is 1.5 percent higher than December 2008.
“The median price rose because of an increased number of mid- to upper-priced homes in the sales mix,” Yun says. It was the first year-over-year gain in median price since August 2007.
Falling Inventories
NAR President Vicki Cox Golder said market conditions are challenging in some areas.
“There’s a shortage of lower-priced homes for sale in much of the country, resulting in multiple bids in some areas,” she says. “Raw unsold inventory has been trending down. As the market heats up again this spring, buyers may need to be prepared to move quickly on a particular home."
Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 6.6 percent to 3.29 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.2-month supply at the current sales pace. That is an increase from a 6.5-month supply in November.
Raw unsold inventory is 11.1 percent below a year ago, is at the lowest level since March 2006, and is 28.2 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.
Distressed homes, which accounted for 32 percent of sales last month, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.
For all of 2009, the median price was $173,500, down 12.4 percent from $198,100 in 2008. Distressed homes accounted for 36 percent of total sales last year.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.93 percent in December from 4.88 percent in November; the rate was 5.29 percent in December 2008.
Single-Family Home, Condo Sales Dip
Single-family home sales fell 16.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.79 million in December from a pace of 5.76 million in November. Sales are 12.7 percent above the 4.25 million level in December 2008. For all of 2009, single-family sales rose 5 percent to 4,566,000.
The median existing single-family home price was $177,500 in December, which is 1.4 percent above a year ago. For all last year, the median price for a single-family home was $173,200, down 11.9 percent from 2008.
Meanwhile, existing condominium and co-op sales fell 15.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 660,000 in December from 780,000 in November. Sales are 34.7 percent higher than the 490,000-unit pace a year ago. For all of 2009, condo sales rose 4.8 percent to 590,000 units.
The median existing condo price was $183,700 in December, up 1 percent from December 2008. For all of last year, the median condo price was $176,100, which is 16.1 percent below 2008.
Regional Breakdown
Here are existing-home sales figures by region:
- Northeast: sales dropped 19.5 percent to an annual level of 910,000 in December but are 21.3 percent above a year ago. Median price: $241,700, up 3.2 percent from December 2008.
- Midwest: sales fell 25.8 percent in December to a level of 1.15 million but are 8.5 percent higher than December 2008. Median price: $143,200, which is 1.8 percent above a year ago.
- South: sales dropped 16.3 percent to an annual pace of 2.01 million in December but are 15.5 percent above December 2008. Median price: $152,000, down 1 percent from a year ago.
- West: sales declined 4.8 percent to an annual rate of 1.38 million in December but are 15 percent higher than a year ago. Median price: $236,000, up 2.7 percent from December 2008.
— NAR
The homebuyer tax credit is not as simple or straightforward as you might think. Here are some nuances that will affect homebuyers who plan to use it.
- To qualify for the move-up tax credit, a home owner must have occupied the same principal residence for five of the last eight years consecutively.
- Buyers can elect to claim the credit on either their 2009 or their 2010 tax return, whichever is best for them.
- Buyers who claim the credit in 2009 can’t file electronically because the Internal Revenue Service hasn’t put the required forms on line. The wait for a refund is three or four months.
- The home can be a mobile home or travel trailer that is fixed to land owned or leased by the home owner. A mobile home or travel trailer that is actually mobile doesn’t qualify.
- The home can’t be purchased from a close relative, including a parent, spouse, child, grandparent or grandchild.
- A buyer who earns no taxable income or doesn’t owe any federal income tax can qualify for the tax credit and file a tax return just to claim it.
Source: Bankrate.com, Marcie Geffner (01/21/2010)
The Federal Housing Administration served subpoenas Tuesday on 15 mortgage companies with high default rates for FHA-backed loans.
The agency has previously taken action against several lenders with questionable records, including Lend America and Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Co.
Department of Housing and Urban Development's Inspector General, Kenneth Donohue said he plans to determine why these 15 lenders had so many loans that defaulted shortly after they closed.
Troubled lenders include: First Tennessee Bank N.A, of Memphis, Tenn.; Alethese LLC, of Lakeway, Texas; Security Atlantic Mortgage Co., of Edison, N.J.; Pine State Mortgage Corp., of Atlanta; Birmingham Bancorp Mortgage Corp., of West Bloomfield, Mich.; Alacrity Financial Services LLC, of Southlake, Texas; Assurity Financial Services LLC, of Englewood, Colo.; D and R Mortgage Corp., of Farmington, Mich.; Webster Bank, of Cheshire, Conn.; Mac-Clair Mortgage Corp., of Flint, Mich.; Americare Investment Group Inc., of Arlington, Texas; 1st Advantage Mortgage, of Lombard, Ill.; American Sterling Bank, of Independence, Mo.; Sterling National Mortgage Co., Inc., of Great Neck, N.Y.; and Dell Franklin Financial LLC, of Columbia, Md.
John Courson, CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association, applauded the crackdown. "We're concerned about the viability of the program and we want to make sure that the bad apples and the bad players, frankly, are eliminated," he said.
Source: The Associated Press, Alan Zibel (01/12/2010)